San Antonio Texas Real Estate - Residential, Commercial, Investment: San Antonio Homes

PMI First Quarter 2009 Risk Index Projects Impact of Recession on Nation's Housing Markets

98% of MSAs show increased risk of lower home prices at year-end 2010

21 of Top-50 MSAs now in highest risk category

WALNUT CREEK, Calif., April 1 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., (NYSE: PMI) , today released its First Quarter 2009 Economic and Real Estate Trends Report and its widely cited U.S. Market Risk Index(SM). The report projects that the U.S. recession may continue to depress housing prices nationally through the end of 2010. As many as 374 of the nation's 381 MSAs (Metropolitan Statistical Areas) - or 98 percent - are now facing increased risk of lower home prices at year-end 2010. However, 212 of the nation's MSAs still had a minimal-to-low risk of lower prices in two years.

The PMI report also indicates that 21 of the nation's 50 largest MSAs are now in the highest risk category, signifying the highest probability of lower house prices by the end of the fourth quarter of 2010, relative to the fourth quarter of 2008. Over the past several quarters, PMI has seen the risk rising fastest in the large urban centers across the country, while smaller MSAs have faired relatively better in their current and projected price performance.

First Quarter 2009 PMI U.S. Market Risk Index (4th Quarter 2008 data)

10 Riskiest and 10 Most Stable MSAs out of 50 Largest MSAs

                         10 Riskiest of the 50 Largest MSAs

    Risk                                               Risk  Affordability
    Rank                   MSA                         Index    Index

    High     Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall; FL             99.9    100.79

    High     Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario; CA      99.9    100.20

    High     Ft. Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-             99.9    103.77
             Deerfield Beach; FL

    High     Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale; CA       99.9     98.62

    High     Las Vegas-Paradise; NV                    99.8    138.02

    High     Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater; FL       99.7    108.91

    High     Orlando-Kissimmee; FL                     99.6    111.05

    High     Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine; CA              99.0     98.59

    High     Jacksonville; FL                          98.9    105.56

    High     Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale; AZ               98.8    116.85

                     10 Most Stable of the 50 Largest MSAs

    Risk                                               Risk  Affordability
    Rank                   MSA                         Index    Index

    Minimal          Pittsburgh; PA                    1.7     139.96

    Minimal          Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor; OH       2.3     175.93

    Minimal          Columbus; OH                      2.4     155.65

    Minimal          Dallas-Plano-Irving; TX           2.5     131.27

    Minimal          Fort Worth-Arlington; TX          2.5     135.09

    Minimal          Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown; TX    2.7     133.63

    Minimal          Memphis: TN-MS-AR                 2.8     159.96

    Minimal          San Antonio; TX                   3.8     122.68

    Minimal          Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord;       5.7     133.47
                     NC-SC

    Minimal          Indianapolis-Carmel; IN           9.6     135.85

The U.S. Metros Least Touched by Recession

A combination of stable home prices and sizable sectors in health care, energy, government, and education kept these metropolitan areas relatively stable.

America's strongest economies have one thing in common—home prices that never got too hot or too cold.

Home prices in metros such as San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Pittsburgh, Rochester, Little Rock, Ark., and Baton Rouge, La., remained steady through boom and bust. Although no metropolitan area entirely avoided the economic downturn, the most resilient metros were protected by a potent mix of recession-resistant jobs.

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Wednesday, June 17, 2009, 12:01am CDT | Modified: Wednesday, June 17, 2009, 8:00am

Job-growth forecasts also play a role in determining a region's long-term strength. To gauge this measure, we looked at predictions through 2017 from Moody's Economy.com. These are based on Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data of market sectors (manufacturing, bad; biotech, good, for example) and its own analysis of each area's business costs and growth prospects. So, while San Antonio and Atlanta have virtually no zoning restrictions and allow liberal home construction during good times, they've been consistent leaders in job creation and Moody's rates them as second and sixth, respectively, for job growth through 2017. This leads to positive expected-absorption rates as job seekers head there.

Forbes selects as their # 3. San Antonio, Texas

Job-growth projections 2008-2017: 2.0%

There may be little zoning in Texas, and the state may be a model of sprawl (read: lots of homes built in good times), but San Antonio has fared better than its Lone Star brethren throughout the peaks and valleys of the last 20 years. Volatility in home building and vacancy were in the middle of the pack nationally, while the metro area's job-growth figures have been national leaders

S.A. is no. 2 on list of 'recession-proof' cities

San Antonio is one of the nation's top recession-proof cities, Forbes.com reports in an analysis of economic growth in the nation's 50 largest metro areas. The Forbes.com study ranks San Antonio second only to Oklahoma City in its ability to withstand recessionary pressures. The study was released April 29, 2008. (For the complete article click on the San Antonio Forecast button on the top of the screen)